I. Migration anticipation and preparedness (Part 2): recent methodological advances

Jun 17, 2025 | 3:30 PM - 4:45 PM

Auditorium B1, Niagara:B0E15

Description

This session will focus on the key question of how much can be reasonably inferred today about the future of migration across a range of time horizons, given the underlying complexity of different types of migration processes and their drivers, and ever-present uncertainty. The parallel session will start with a high-level overview, taking stock of the recent methodological developments at a range of temporal and geographic scales. Panellists will look at the role of alternative data sources, focusing on both big data and expert opinion in anticipating future migration flows. The discussion will then move to specific approaches for modelling and predicting migration, with particular focus on the nowcasting of asylum flows and other forms of conflict-related displacement. In addition, panellists will present methodological advances in the use of machine learning techniques and agent-based models, respectively – the former aiming to maximise the information gained from various data sources, and the latter to enhance the models with an explicit description of explanatory mechanisms. Moderator: Jakub Bijak, Professor of Statistical Demography, University of Southampton Speakers: - Tuba Bircan, Professor, Vrije University Brussels - Derek Groen, Reader in Computer Science, Brunel University of London - Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, Professor of Social Statistics & Demography, University of Manchester - Dr. Andrea Aparicio Castro, Senior Research Fellow in Bayesian Digital Demography, University of Oxford